The All Progressive Congress, APC, may still win the September 16 Edo gubernatorial election despite the qualifications of the incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki from participating in the governorship primary.
The APC screening committee disqualified Governor Obaseki from participating in the governorship primary of the party.
The disqualification of the embattled governor has been generating reactions.
However, political analysts believe the decision of the APC screening committee might not affect the chances of the party in winning in the coming election.
A Professor of political science at Osun State University, Bolaji Omitola, clarified that the party has supreme power on its processes.
According to Prof Bolaji, Obaseki lost due to a defective certificate, he may have scaled through his first term but recent events in Bayelsa State could have contributed to APC’s decision.
Prof Omitola said, “APC has done what is best for it, and nobody can say what will come out of the election but Obaseki’s defection might not affect the party’s victory in the coming election.
“It has happened before in Lagos where an incumbent Governor didn’t win the party primary and the party still won the election.” He said.
Meanwhile, another Political scientist, Rasheed Rasheed explained that the APC as a party may not be affected because the overall decision to pick a candidate rests on the party structure.
He further said the national leadership were tactical and futuristic in their disqualification of Obaseki.
Mr. Rasheed said, “Obaseki got the message right. One, as he was disqualified, he knew if he should challenge it, it would open doors to more crises and make him lose focus on his second term bid. The APC too knew that once he is disqualified and he moves to another party, there is no way he will challenge his disqualification in court.
“The next line of action for Obaseki is so clear in the manner he decided not to challenge his disqualification and his determination to pursue his second term bid. This implies that he will move to another party to actualize his dream. And if all calculations are right, he will move to the PDP because that is the party with the second-largest structure in Edo state.
“It will be suicidal for him to move to a new party just five months into the election. A party without solid structure abinitio. It’s not easy to build a party in such a very short period.
“The chances of APC are very bright. Though the election in my own reading will be violent and tough owing to what we have witnessed so far in the past. Obaseki and the APC will fight tooth and nail with everything which may make the election bloody. But APC ‘s hopeful candidate Pastor Ize Iyanmu is loved by the people.
“He has his structure on ground and can match Obaseki in everything needed for the poll. Don’t forget Ize-Iyamu has been around for a while and was dropped by Oshiomhole for Obaseki in 2016. I don’t see Obaseki coming back though the election promises to be tough and interesting.” He added.